IPv6 Guru Predicts Last-Minute Switch to Protocol

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    • #1884
      Don Donzal
      Keymaster

      With the inevitable switch to IPv6, here’s a good article from an expert on the subject:

      Asks: Do you have enough public IPv4 addresses to sustain you?
      By Carolyn Duffy Marsan, Network World, 12/17/07

      Remember the Greek myth about Sisyphus, who was cursed to roll a huge boulder up a steep hill and then watch it roll down again for eternity? The story brings to mind IPv6, the long-anticipated upgrade to the Internet’s main communications protocol, which is known as IPv4.

      Jim Bound, Chair of the North American IPv6 Task Force, CTO of the IPv6 Forum and a Senior HP Fellow, has been pushing the IPv6 boulder up the network hill for more than a decade. Bound doesn’t think the task of promoting IPv6 is as unending or pointless as Sisyphus’ boulder, but he does joke that IPv6 may not get deployed during his lifetime. (Read about “How the feds are dropping the ball on IPv6.”)

      Carolyn Duffy Marsan spoke recently with Bound about the status of IPv6 adoption in the United States. Here are excerpts from the conversation:

      The IPv6 community is now talking about 2010 as the date for IPv4 address exhaustion. Is that date real?

      It is very real. It could be plus or minus one year. The consensus is that we have two to four years until we run out of IPv4 addresses. It’s hard to predict how the usage will work. It’s been sporadic over the years. If you go to the IPv6 Forum Web site, you’ll see a counter that shows how much time we feel is left. 

      What impact should the 2010 date have on corporate network managers?

      The first thing they have to ask themselves is if they have enough public IPv4 addresses to sustain their businesses today, which probably they do. But do they have enough public IPv4 addresses to sustain their businesses forever? There will be new services, new users and new reasons for end-node addresses that require public IP addresses, not private IP addresses. Once the IPv4 address pool is gone, they will not be able to get a public IP address unless they move to IPv6. That’s why the registries have said it’s time to upgrade to IPv6 now.

      What should U.S. companies be doing about IPv6?

      It’s time for them to begin planning the move to IPv6 for their IT departments. There’s no one-size-fits-all transition plan. The first thing is to upgrade the infrastructure. You need to get your network plumbing in order so that IPv6 can co-exist and be interoperable with IPv4. Things like e-mail and Web services can be moved to IPv6 over time. You also need an address space plan. The exhaustion of the free pool of IPv4 addresses doesn’t mean the Internet melts down. The Internet will keep on going. What changes is the ability to get new public IP addresses. So anybody who is growing, whether they are a broadband provider, a manufacturing concern or a big consulting or Wall Street firm, is not going to be able grow with public IPv4 addresses.

      For full story:
      http://www.networkworld.com/news/2007/121707-how-feds-are-dropping-the-ball-side-1.html

      Don

    • #15033
      jason
      Participant

      Inevitable? In the words of Inigo Montoya “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” I think a different word is needed for things that are measured in decades.  😉

    • #15034
      Anonymous
      Participant

      lol

      you think its going to take that long for IpV4 to be used up or for IPv6 to be rolled out?

    • #15035
      jason
      Participant

      Likely both. I think between CIDR and NAT we can stretch IPv4 for a bit longer AND I think the resistance to IPv6 is quite a bit stronger than most folks think it is. I keep hearing people point to the DoD mandate, which actually says that they need to be IPv6 capable, NOT that they actually have to run it. I think the pressure is just not there yet.

    • #15036
      Don Donzal
      Keymaster

      The real pressure will come from China and India.

      Don

    • #15037
      jason
      Participant

      True, with China gearing up we’ll start to feel the IP space pinch a bit more, but will that be enough to cause a shift on a global scale? It’s similar to Japan with the population density that they have. They actually are using IPv6 to some extent and have much better access to misc hardware that supports it than we do, but that’s amounting to approximately diddly in the good ol’ US of A.

    • #15038
      Anonymous
      Participant

      yeah i the US ISPs dont seem to be ready or willing to migrate either. 

    • #15039
      Clay Briggs
      Participant

      I’ve heard mixed things on it.  From a Fed standpoint, all we’re doing is getting our boarder routers ready.  The whole IPV4 running out scare has been largely put on the back burner due to NAT.  That, and the fact that as more people switch to IPV6… old ‘used’ IPV4 addies are being opened up again and recycled in the US.  It is of course a band aid approach, but I doubt anyone is realistically going to rush to IPV6 anytime soon… when they can bandaid their networks with NAT for a while.  My CCNA teacher seemed to agree with that line of reasoning too.  He taught the ‘soon departure of IPV4’, then stopped the recorder and said with NAT and recycled addresses it’s quite likely IPV4 will be around for a bit. 

    • #15040
      jason
      Participant

      @g00d_4sh wrote:

      From a Fed standpoint, all we’re doing is getting our boarder routers ready. 

      I think that’s about all anyone (in the US) is doing. It’ll be interesting to watch for the next 5 or 10 years  ;D

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