Security funding increases, mobile security worsens, and security in the cloud expands -- see what else is in store for 2010

1. Security funding increases by more than 10 percent to recover from a year of cuts. Our research shows that security is one of the areas least likely to suffer severe funding cuts. However, given escalating threats, a flat security budget in 2009 may have been a step back for companies. Expect an attempt to make up for 2009.

2. Congress creates new regulatory compliance mandates. Enron gave us the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX). What will 100x Enron give us? The math of compliance is shocking because it represents "assymetric warfare". A few sentences of legislation (SOX section 404?) can lead to billions in spending. The financial meltdown of 2008 to 2009 will lead to extensive and very costly regulation, in financial services and beyond.

3. Self-propagating mobile phone worms and Trojans. Mobile security will get slightly worse as the proliferation of applications and smart devices broadens the attack surface. While we've seen worms on iPhone, they have not been self-propagating, depending on PCs to spread. Expect to see true self-propagating threats on iPhone and Android systems in 2010.

4. Cloud computing providers introduce encryption-at-rest and other security capabilities "as a service". With security as one of the main impediments to cloud adoption, expect to see encryption, VPN, intrusion-protection systems and other security capabilities offered as a per-hour billable service. Amazon's Virtual Private Cloud is just the beginning. This could become a key area of competition in 2010.

5. Security in the cloud expands with new services. In addition to cloud computing, managed security services (security in the cloud) will also expand. Expect to see data-leak prevention, encryption, directory and authentication services provided by MSSP in addition to the old staples of antispam, antimalware and firewall

I think breaking out of virtualisation and attacking the hypervisor is going to gain momentum as more and more companies turn to virtualisation to solve IT issues.